种植年限对设施蔬菜土壤养分和环境的影响

为了给设施蔬菜地合理施肥提供依据,研究了不同种植年限设施蔬菜地土壤理化性质、微生物数量及酶活性变化,以露地土壤为对照(CK),采集种植1 a(年)、3 a、5 a、7 a、9 a、11 a、13 a、15 a、17 a、20 a以及20 a以上的0~20 cm设施蔬菜土壤样品,采用常规土壤理化性质检测方法测定了土壤理化性质和酶活性,采用平板计数法,分析土壤微生物数量。结果表明,设施菜地种植年限与土壤容重呈正相关,与土壤孔隙度呈负相关;设施菜地土壤pH值随种植年限的增加逐年降低,两者呈显著的负相关性;土壤EC值、土壤有机质和速效磷含量都随种植年限的增加而逐年增高,并与种植年限呈显著的正相关性;与CK相比,种植13 a的蔬菜样地土壤全氮和速效钾含量均显著地增加;连续种植20 a以上,设施蔬菜土壤含盐量比对照土壤显著地增加了486.49%。土壤细菌和放线菌数量、过氧化氢酶和碱性磷酸酶活性呈现出先增加后减少的趋势,且都在种植年限为11~13 a时达到最大;真菌数量随着种植年限的增加而增加,而土壤脲酶活性则随种植年限的增加呈下降趋势;转化酶活性随着种植年限的增加保持不变。土壤微生物数量与酶活性之间存在一定程度的相关关系,其中土壤真菌数量与土壤酶活性之间的相关性最为显著。综上所述,种植年限不同的设施菜地,土壤养分失衡,呈现酸化趋势,盐分含量逐年增加,土传真菌病害潜在发生,对设施蔬菜生产不利。     

浙江省耕地多功能价值时空变化与权衡-协同关系

耕地多功能价值的时空演变与权衡-协同关系测度对于深化耕地可持续利用和管理具有重要意义。该研究以经济快速发展地区浙江省为例,采用价值量化方法对2000、2010和2015年浙江省耕地多功能进行价值评估并分析其时空变化特征。运用Spearman秩相关系数法、双变量空间自相关模型以及可拓展随机性环境影响评估(StochasticImpactsby Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology,STIRPAT)模型探究耕地多功能之间的权衡-协同关系及影响因素。结果表明:1)2000—2015年浙江省耕地多功能总价值下降,地均耕地多功能价值呈现先下降后上升的趋势。其中气体调节、水源涵养和社会保障功能价值下降明显,食物生产和美学景观功能价值增加;耕地多功能总价值在空间上呈现北高南低的分布格局,2000—2015年大部分县市耕地多功能总价值均有不同程度的下降,西南山地丘陵区耕地多功能总价值有所提升。2)浙江省耕地多功能之间主要表现为协同关系,各项功能之间的协同-权衡关系存在空间异质性;2000—2015年,浙江省耕地多功能协同关系总体减弱,在空间上主要表现为高值协同区减少。3)城镇居民可支配收入和地均农业机械总动力对耕地多功能总价值有负面影响,农村居民可支配收入增加有助于耕地多功能总价值的提升。该研究成果可为科学划定耕地利用与保护区,促进耕地多功能的协同利用和提升耕地资源价值提供科学依据。     

A context for recruitment correlations: why marine fisheries biologists should still look for them

In many cases when ecologists want to investigate a process, they often look for the best system on which to conduct the research, "best" meaning that the possibility of discovering mechanisms is optimized or made easier in some way. In fisheries we do it backwards. The species and system are given to us by economics, and we then fly in the face of the difficult circumstances to find mechanisms that are elusive anyway. These difficult circumstances constitute in some sense the first set of statistical problems. Using examples from the Northeast Pacific, I review the characteristics of cohort time series that make some species more tractable; propose a conscious process of conceptualization to assist in the formulation of clear, germane hypotheses; highlight the contrast between modeling in the sense of statistical fitting versus simulation models of processes; explore how the first round of models integrates with the second round of planning for new data collection at sea and in the lab; and, finally, propose how to judge success in terms of an operational approach.     

不同种植方式对甜菜产质量的影响

试验结果表明,在同等条件下,由于栽培方式不同,密度不同,块根产量、产糖量差异较大,以纸筒大垄双行为最好,甜菜块根产量、产糖量比对照小垄直播分别提高36.7%、39.8%,每公顷纯增效益1602元。其次是大垄双行覆膜,块根产量、产糖量比对照小垄直播分别提高31.5%、33.1%。     

Evaluation of two N cycle models for the prediction of N mineralization from grassland soils in the UK

Abstract. The ability of two nitrogen cycle models, of contrasting complexity, to predict N mineralization from a range of grassland soils in the UK, was evaluated. These were NCYCLE, a simple mass balance model of the N cycle in UK grasslands, and CENTURY, a more complex model simulating long-term C, N, P & S dynamics in grassland ecosystems. The models were tested using field measurements of net N mineralization from a range of grassland soils (differing in soil type, history & management practice), obtained over a 2 year period using a soil core incubation technique. This method was considered to measure the total net release of mineral N from the soil organic matter over a specified time, including N which may have been recycled several times. NCYCLE consistently under-estimated mineralization rates at all sites. By contrast, there was some correlation between CENTURY predictions of net N mineralization and field measurements. This may have reflected the different abilities of the two models to simulate N recycling. Neither model, however, was able to predict adequately the effect of cultivation and reseeding on net N mineralization.     

DYNAMIC MODELS OF AQUIFEROUS CONTENT OF LIVING FUELS

RESEARCHSITELivingfue1splayedanimportantroleinheatconcentrationactionorinheatsourceofforestfire.Whenitshumiditydecreasestoacertainlevel,theybecameaheatsourcewhenthelivingcombustibl-eswerecombinedwithfire.Thus,itwasessentialhowtodeterminethemoisturesituationandthefOrestfiredangerdegreetobeforecastedaccurately.Thedynamicmodelspresentedinthispaperwereusefultosolvethisproblem.Everyyear,-therewerealotofforestfires,especiallythefireoccurrenceinDaxinganMountains,inthespringofl987.Itwasveryimpo…     

线性规划模型在农村能源建设中的运用

本文分析了线性规划模型在农村能源开发利用中运用的必要性和可行性。系统阐述了如何将农村能源多元结构的优化问题表达为线性规划数学模型，并以四川米易县农村能源开发利用优化设计为例进行了分析求解。     

刺槐单株生物量动态研究

本文依据420株刺槐生物量及23株树干解析资料,应用灰色Verhulst模型,对太行山坡地刺槐林单株干、枝、叶、根生物量动态进行了研究,分别建立了预测模型,预测了各器官生长的速生期和停止生长林龄,为实现刺槐林的多目标经营提供决策依据。     

呼伦贝尔市农业结构调整最优方案

根据不同区域气候特点和产量水平,运用系统工程理论中的线性规划方法对该市的作物种植结构进行了调整,在种植面积基本不变的情况下,净产值增加了15.3%和17.3%;并在不同的气候区域设计了不同作物种植的最佳组合方案。这对增加农业种植效益和农民收入,有效改善生态环境,保持农业的可持续发展等方面都具有显著的经济、社会和生态效益。     

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.